{"id":4717,"date":"2020-07-03T00:17:21","date_gmt":"2020-07-03T00:17:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aviancetechnologies.com\/blog\/blog\/can-an-algorithm-predict-the-pandemics-next-moves\/"},"modified":"2020-07-03T00:17:21","modified_gmt":"2020-07-03T00:17:21","slug":"can-an-algorithm-predict-the-pandemics-next-moves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aviancetechnologies.com\/blog\/can-an-algorithm-predict-the-pandemics-next-moves\/","title":{"rendered":"Can an Algorithm Predict the Pandemic\u2019s Next Moves?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\n<p>[responsivevoice_button rate=&#8221;1\u2033 pitch=&#8221;1.2\u2033 volume=&#8221;0.8\u2033 voice=&#8221;US English Female&#8221; buttontext=&#8221;Story in Audio&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h2>Can an Algorithm Predict the Pandemic\u2019s Next Moves?<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">The Google Flu Trends algorithm, as it is known, performed poorly. For instance, it continually overestimated doctor visits, later evaluations found, because of limitations of the data and the influence of outside factors such as media attention, which can drive up searches that are unrelated to actual illness.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">Since then, researchers have made multiple adjustments to this approach, combining Google searches with other kinds of data. Teams at Carnegie-Mellon University, University College London and the University of Texas, among others, have models incorporating some real-time data analysis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">\u201cWe know that no single data stream is useful in isolation,\u201d said Madhav Marathe, a computer scientist at the University of Virginia. \u201cThe contribution of this new paper is that they have a good, wide variety of streams.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">In the new paper, the team analyzed real-time data from four sources, in addition to Google: Covid-related Twitter posts, geotagged for location; doctors\u2019 searches on a physician platform called UpToDate; anonymous mobility data from smartphones; and readings from the Kinsa Smart Thermometer, which uploads to an app. It integrated those data streams with a sophisticated prediction model developed at Northeastern University, based on how people move and interact in communities.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">The team tested the predictive value of trends in the data stream by looking at how each correlated with case counts and deaths over March and April, in each state.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">In New York, for instance, a sharp uptrend in Covid-related Twitter posts began more than a week before case counts exploded in mid-March; relevant Google searches and Kinsa measures spiked several days beforehand.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-158dogj evys1bk0\">The team combined all its data sources, in effect weighting each according to how strongly it was correlated to a coming increase in cases. This \u201charmonized\u201d algorithm anticipated outbreaks by 21 days, on average, the researchers found.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"post-item-metadata entry-meta\">\n<p class=\"has-background has-very-light-gray-background-color\">Disclaimer: Content may be edited for style and length.\u00a0<a class=\"newsium-categories category-color-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/07\/02\/health\/santillana-coronavirus-model-forecast.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Story Source<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0\u00a0 [responsivevoice_button rate=&#8221;1\u2033 pitch=&#8221;1.2\u2033 volume=&#8221;0.8\u2033 voice=&#8221;US English Female&#8221; buttontext=&#8221;Story in Audio&#8221;] Can an Algorithm Predict the Pandemic\u2019s Next Moves? The Google Flu Trends algorithm, as it is known, performed poorly. For instance, it continually overestimated doctor visits, later evaluations found, because of limitations of the data and the influence of outside factors such as media &#8230; <a title=\"Can an Algorithm Predict the Pandemic\u2019s Next Moves?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/aviancetechnologies.com\/blog\/can-an-algorithm-predict-the-pandemics-next-moves\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Can an Algorithm Predict the Pandemic\u2019s Next Moves?\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4718,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-technology"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Can an Algorithm Predict the Pandemic\u2019s Next Moves? - Aviance Technologies<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can an Algorithm Predict the Pandemic\u2019s Next Moves? - Aviance Technologies\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00a0\u00a0 [responsivevoice_button rate=&#8221;1\u2033 pitch=&#8221;1.2\u2033 volume=&#8221;0.8\u2033 voice=&#8221;US English Female&#8221; buttontext=&#8221;Story in Audio&#8221;] Can an Algorithm Predict the Pandemic\u2019s Next Moves? The Google Flu Trends algorithm, as it is known, performed poorly. For instance, it continually overestimated doctor visits, later evaluations found, because of limitations of the data and the influence of outside factors such as media ... 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